Oscar Predictions

By Susan Thea Posnock

I've put it off long enough, but its time to pick my Oscar winners.

I keep hearing how boring this Oscar season has been. Not the case for those of us who are “Lord of the Rings” fans. We've been waiting three years for this. Back when “The Fellowship of the Ring” lost to “A Beautiful Mind,” I said to myself, they're waiting for the last one to decide for sure. The time has come.

Without further delay, my picks:

Best Picture:

I'm nearly 100 percent sure that “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” is unbeatable. But, I'll reserve about 2 percent of doubt that is really just a cushion from bitter disappointment. Had there truly been a more worthy film of these nominees, my doubts would be greater. But I've seen them all, some more than once, and ROTK is simply the best. It's the best of this year, and it ranks as one of the best films of all time. I've heard critics here or there complain, “it's not fair for the other films to have to compete against three films.” My response: Bull. Was it fair that FOTR, clearly deserving of the Oscar for best pic, was denied simply because it was only part one of the whole? And if ROTK does win, it won't be a reward for all three films, it will be a reward for part three succeeding on just about every level and living up to expectations that grew with each film. It will win, it should win.

“Lost in Translation” is a great film. Moving to me on a very personal level, but it's just not in the same league. It's like comparing a great and powerful symphony to a simple, beautiful song. While both deserve to be recognized, if one must choose, I believe the symphony is more awards worthy.

“Master and Commander” kicks boo-tay, and in my opinion was robbed of acting nominations, even more so than ROTK (I'll get to that later). Beautifully executed and acted, and in another year, it would be my pick for winner. Not this year.

“ Mystic River ” is a film that I just didn't get the fuss about. It is a good, solid crime thriller. One that for me was completely ruined by a ridiculous third act. It is a work worthy of admiration, but not even close to being the best picture.

“Seabiscuit” is a nice, inspirational film. Period.

So, to review:

Will win: ROTK
Should win: ROTK
Should have been nominated: “American Splendor”
Spoiler: “ Mystic River ” (Oh please NOOOOOO!)

Best Director:

More of a lock for Peter Jackson than ROTK is a lock for BP. If he doesn't win, it will be regarded as one of the biggest oversights in Oscar history. I just don't see that happening.

Fernando Meirelles (“City of God ”) has been rewarded by the surprise nomination. I haven't seen the film, so I can say no more. Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation” would be an astounding choice. But she won't be the first woman to win Best Director. At least, not for “Lost in Translation.” I think she'll continue making great films though and I hope she does win it someday. Clint Eastwood won for the film he deserved to win for “Unforgiven,” and “ Mystic River ” will not give him a second Oscar. Peter Weir could win in any year but not this one.

Will win: Peter Jackson
Should win: Peter Jackson
Should have been nominated: Jim Sheridan for “In America”
Spoiler: Sofia Coppola

Best Actor:

Wow, I've really had a hard time deciding this one. My safe choice would be Sean Penn for “ Mystic River ,” not only does he elevate the film with his performance, but he was also amazing in “21 Grams.” And he's so due it's not even funny. When other actors have been over due they've gotten it for crap (like Al Pacino for “Scent of a Woman”) so at least his performance in MR is truly worthy. But then there's Bill Murray in “Lost in Translation.” Totally sublime. Had me with his humor and his sadness. Subtle and interesting. Also due, also completely worthy. In fact, if I'm just going on performance and not history, he is my choice… But then, there's Johnny Depp. Let's face it; “Pirates of the Caribbean ” is a bland romantic adventure without him. He doesn't just elevate the film, he makes it. His work is completely original and daring, funny and unforgettable. After much thought, Depp is my winner. I just think he's poised for the not-so-sneak attack. Penn and Murray will divide the vote and Depp will slide through.

As for Jude Law in “Cold Mountain,” he's the best thing in a decent but not great film, but just way too understated. He's got an Oscar win in him, but not this year. I didn't see “House of Sand and Fog,” which I regret. I'm sure Ben Kingsley is brilliant. But unless he is the beneficiary of the Penn/Murray split, he has no chance. I'd be shocked.

Will win: Johnny Depp
Should win: I think all three deserve it
Should have been nominated: Russell Crowe, I don't care if he's won or he's been over-nominated, he rocked in “Master and Commander” and he wuz robbed.
Spoiler: Sean Penn or Bill Murray (The favorites, I know, but this is reverse logic.)

Best Actress:

I can't fairly assess this category, because I haven't seen either “Monster” (favorite Charlize Theron) or “Something's Gotta Give” (comedy favorite Diane Keaton). But just from what I have seen and read, I do think Theron is a lock.

Keisha Castle-Hughes is the most likely spoiler, but I just don't see it happening. But she was wonderful in “Whale Rider” and she's adorable. We'll see her again. Naomi Watts is good in “21 Grams,” but she's got no chance here. And I was pretty surprised Samantha Morton got nominated for “In America,” over her more deserving co-stars (and I mean Sarah and Emma Bolger).

Will win: Charlize Theron
Should win: From what I've heard, Theron
Should have been nominated: Uma Thurman for kicking serious butt in “Kill Bill Vol. I”

Best Supporting Actor:

Everyone is picking Tim Robbins for “ Mystic River.” Gotta say, I really didn't like his performance, but I think he'll get the Oscar. Benicio Del Toro, on the other hand, is one of the most charismatic actors in film these days, and his work is breathtaking in “21 Grams.” I didn't love the film, but I loved every second he was on screen. He looks like crap, but he's just mesmerizing. But he won't win because he's already got one.

Didn't see “The Cooler” so I can't judge Alec Baldwin. I guess the idea of a Baldwin brother winning an Oscar has its appeal. Djimon Hounsou is one of the best parts of “In America,” but his role is really a stereotype. He makes it more, but I just can't get around that. Same with the dynamic Ken Watanabe in “The Last Samurai,” brilliant in what is essentially the “noble savage/warrior Tom Cruise side-kick” role. And he blows Cruise out of the water, so he deserves an Oscar for that alone.

Will win: Tim Robbins
Should win: Benicio Del Toro
Should have been nominated: Sean Astin for being the heart of ROTK, and Paul Bettany who is brilliant in “Master and Commander.” And as much as I love Astin, if these guys had both been nominated I'd want Bettany to win.
Spoiler: Alec Baldwin

Best Supporting Actress:

Of the nominees, I've only seen Marcia Gay Harden, who overacted her way through “Mystic River,” and Renee Zellweger who REALLY overacted her way through “Cold Mountain.” I'm gonna go for the surprise win though (over Zellweger the clear favorite) and pick Patricia Clarkson for “Pieces of April.” I'm sure Shohreh Aghdashloo is as good as her raves for “House of Sand and Fog” and Holly Hunter is always good, so why not in “Thirteen.” But my gut just tells me overlooked Clarkson will get the shocker win.

Will win: Patricia Clarkson
Should win: Don't know
Should have been nominated: Hope Davis for “American Splendor”
And now quickly through the rest of the categories:

Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: “Lost in Translation”
Should win: “Lost in Translation” (Sofia 's Oscar)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “ Mystic River ”
Should win: ROTK

So there ya have it. In my next column I'll discuss the actual results. Plus, a rundown of other awards LOTR should have won (as submitted by readers).

GO RINGS!!!!

(Originally published on OscarWatch.com. ©2004 OscarWatch All Rights Reserved.)