And the Nominees are…

By Susan Thea Posnock

The Oscars have never really been about what is BEST. Instead, winners get nominated and walk away with the statuette because of anything from popularity to longevity to likeability.

Here's hoping “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” is able to score on all of those counts (and more) this year. I think, if the Academy is really creative, it will figure out a way to nominate the film in almost every category. Animated film? Isn't Gollum the most inventive computer-animated character ever created? Foreign Language film? Elvish ain't English.

Perhaps that's hoping for a little too much, but there's no doubt (or little doubt) the film will earn double-digit nominations. With that in mind, here's a look at how (I hope) ROTK will rule at the Oscars this year.

Best Picture. Okay, it's a lock to get a nomination. Can it win? Yes. Will it win? Well, I certainly hope so. I've put my interest in watching the Oscars on the line for it. It's clearly the leader at this point. But I don't really think the race will begin until all five horses are at the post. I think the other BP nominees will be “Lost in Translation,” “Mystic River,” “Cold Mountain,” and “Seabiscuit.”

Best Director: After being passed over for “The Two Towers,” Peter Jackson is as good as a lock for his second nomination for the series. Like with BP, he's the clear front-runner, but an upset isn't out of the question. The competition will be: Sofia Coppola, Clint Eastwood, Peter Weir, and Anthony Minghella.

Best Actor: Realistically, I don't think ROTK has a contender who can crack the top five. Elijah Wood, the soul of the film, is the most likely to get a nomination here. But I just don't think there are enough people (outside of the diehard fans), who take his work seriously. It is one of those instances where a role has been so perfectly cast and embodied by the actor that it doesn't seem like a performance. He is Frodo. And don't give me that crap about his acting just being a wide-eyed stare. The truth is, Elijah's eyes are almost a handicap for him. I've seen him in person more than once and he has huge eyes. Would it be a better performance if he squinted? In a year with less heavyweight “actorly” candidates, he may have had a shot at a nomination.

All that said, my favorite male performances this year have been from Bill Murray in “Lost in Translation,” and Johnny Depp in “Pirates of the Caribbean.” I hope they both get nominated and I hope Murray wins. He deserves it. The other nominees here will likely be Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Ben Kingsley (“House of Sand & Fog”), and Jude Law (“Cold Mountain”).

Best Actress: Okay, I admit it. No chance for a ROTK nomination here. The likely nominees: Charlize Theron (“Monster”), Diane Keaton (“Something's Gotta Give”), Naomi Watts (“21 Grams”), Nicole Kidman (“Cold Mountain”), and Jennifer Connelly (“House of Sand & Fog”).

Supporting Actor: Go Samwise, go! I'm a bit disheartened by his failure to get a Screen Actors Guild nomination, but I'm hoping, really hoping, he makes the cut. Yes, it's an ensemble, but if Elijah is the soul, Sean Astin's Sam is the heart. In a film as big as “Return of the King” that kind of magic and emotional center should not be ignored. In that non-recorded interview I had with Sean (oh yeah, and a few other reporters), I had asked him if he felt his work in the pick-ups was better than during principal photography. He said it varied. For instance, he said the pick-ups at the end of “The Two Towers” improved his “it's like the great stories” speech. Then he noted that his “most emotional scene” in ROTK was (in his opinion) better in its original version, that it was more emotional and made him cry more. Despite the raves he's gotten for the scene (and given the nature of the press roundtable I didn't get the chance to ask which scene) he says he feels there is an even better version out there that critics and audiences will never see. Personally, I find that hard to imagine. But his comments are another example of how driven he was in his portrayal of Sam, and getting it right. It is too late to plead with Academy members to nominate him, so here's hoping they did right by Samwise. The other nominees: Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”), Paul Bettany (“Master & Commander”), Benecio del Toro (“21 Grams”), and Ken Watanabe (“The Last Samurai”).

Supporting Actress: Given what a gift ROTK is, I find it hard to be angry with PJ. But…had the Houses of Healing scene(s) been in the final cut, perhaps Miranda Otto would have had a real shot at a nomination here. As it is, it will be a major surprise if she's in the final five. Still, she's got arguably the best moment in the film and she pulls it off perfectly. Stranger things have happened, but I think the more likely nominees will be Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”), Scarlett Johansson (“Lost In Translation”), Marcia Gay Harden (“Mystic River”), Holly Hunter (“Thirteen”), and Patricia Clarkson (“Pieces Of April”).

Best Adapted Screenplay: ROTK will earn a nomination here, along with “Mystic River,” “Cold Mountain,” “Seabiscuit,” and “American Splendor.” As for Original Screenplay, which ROTK obviously can't qualify for, I think the nominees will be “Lost in Translation,” “21 Grams,” “In America,” “Thirteen,” and “Finding Nemo.”

In addition to the four nominations above, I also think ROTK will get nominated for Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Visual FX, Costumes, Makeup, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, and Song. So, that brings the total to fourteen. I'll get into how many Oscars it could win after the nominations are announced at the end of the month.

(Originally published on OscarWatch.com. ©2004 OscarWatch All Rights Reserved.)